pumg = function(il1,il3)
{
n1 = rnorm(5000)
n3 = -0.2425 * n1 + 0.9701 * rnorm(5000)
xgreen = 29.0005 + 2.8708 * n1
ygreen = 22.2332 + 2.3690 * n3
u1 = runif(5000, 10, 40)
u2 = runif(5000)
u3 = (40 - 29 + 24 / u1) * u2 + 29 - 24/ u1
plot(NA, xlim = c(10,40), ylim = c(10,40), xlab = "LDH 1", ylab = "LDH 3", main = "simulated probability")
points(u1,u3, col = "coral3")
points(xgreen, ygreen, col = "chartreuse4")
points(il1,il3, col = "dodgerblue4", pch = 23, lwd = 8)
giudizio = factor(c(rep("green", 5000), rep("red", 5000)))
xpumg = c(xgreen, u1)
ypumg = c(ygreen, u3)
distanza = sqrt( (xpumg-il1)^2 + (ypumg-il3)^2 )
raggio = quantile(distanza, 0.1)
vicini = which(distanza < raggio)
hwmngreen = table(giudizio[vicini])[[1]]
hwmnred = table(giudizio[vicini])[[2]]
hwmn = hwmngreen + hwmnred
pumggreen = hwmngreen / hwmn
pumgred = hwmnred / hwmn
messumg = paste("umg risk index =", round(il3 + 24/il1, 1))
messgreen = paste("probability green ", 5 * trunc(0.5 + (100 * pumggreen)/5), "%", sep = "")
messgred = paste("probability red ",5 * trunc(0.5 + (100 * pumgred)/5), "%", sep = "")
print(messumg)
print(messgreen)
print(messgred)
}

# memo: pumg(ldh1, ldh3)